Muslim-Majority Countries vs Democracy Index Scores
Is there statistical evidence to suggest that Muslim-Majority countries are less democratic that non-Muslim-majority countries?
Are Muslim-majority countries becoming more or less democratic over time?
According to a 2012 study by Shaheen Mozaffar, "the majority (57%) of Muslim countries are either democracies or semi-democracies, with 7% classified as Free and 50% as Partly Free, while 43% are not democracies."
I wanted to test this myself, so I compared two datasets: one, the portion of Muslims in all countries and, two, the Democracy Index score of each country.
I then analyzed the two datasets.
On doing so, I found a moderate negative correlation indicating that a higher Muslim proportion of a country corresponds to a lower Democracy Index score:
R: -0.5773
R2: 0.3333
N: 138
p: < .00001 (result is significant at p < .01)
Are Muslim-majority countries becoming more or less democratic over time?
If we assume that a hopeful goal for Muslim-majority countries is to become more democratic, is there evidence to suggest that they are becoming so?
I looked at this as well, again using Democracy Index scores, this time for 44 Muslim-majority countries.
I weighted the scores according to the portion of a given country that is Muslim. On doing so, I found what looks to me to be bad news:
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